Canadian Home Sales See Surprise Jump in October

Home sales activity recorded over Canadian MLS® Systems increased 7.7% on a month-over-month basis in October 2024, reaching its highest level since April 2022.

Rising home sales activity was broad based, with the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and British Columbia’s Lower Mainland recording double-digit increases in October. (Chart A)

“The jump in home sales last month was definitely an October surprise, although with the big interest rate cut of 50 basis points announced during the last week of the month, the increase was more likely related to the surge in new listings we saw in September,” said Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist. “There probably won’t be another rush of new supply like that until next spring, and at that point, mortgage rates should be close to their expected lows, as well. With that in mind, you can think of the October numbers as a sort of preview for what we might expect to see next year.”

Highlights:

• National home sales jumped 7.7% month-over-month in October.
• Actual (not seasonally adjusted) monthly activity came in 30% above October 2023.
• The number of newly listed properties were down 3.5% month-over-month.
• The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) edged down 0.1% month-over-month and was down 2.7% on a year-over-year basis.
• The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average sale price was up 6% on a year-over-year basis in October.

Chart A

New listings posted a 3.5% month-over-month decline in October, although that followed on the heels of a 4.8% jump in September, so new supply remains at some of the highest levels since mid-2022. The national pullback in October was led by a drop in new supply in the GTA.

With sales rising considerably in October and new listings falling, the national sales-to-new listings ratio tightened to 58%, up from 52% in September. The long-term average for the national sales-to-new listings ratio is 55%, with a sales-to-new listings ratio between 45% and 65% generally consistent with balanced housing market conditions.

“October’s strong sales numbers across Canada suggest buyers have been in the market since rates began to fall in early summer, but they were waiting for the right property to come up for sale, which didn’t happen in a big way until September,” said James Mabey, CREA Chair. “The extent to which that will be able to continue between now and next spring will depend on the number of listings coming onto the market. Whether you’re looking to sell now that buyers are back, or looking to make a purchase while you have a wider selection, the first step is always to contact a REALTOR® in your area.”

The National Composite MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) inched down 0.1% from September to October; however, small ups and downs aside, the bigger picture is that prices at the national level have remained mostly flat since the beginning of the year. (Chart B)

Chart B

There were 174,458 properties listed for sale on all Canadian MLS® Systems at the end of October 2024, up 11.4% from a year earlier but still below historical averages for that time of the year.

There were 3.7 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of October, down from 4.1 months at the end of September and the lowest level in more than a year. The long-term average is 5.1 months of inventory, with a seller’s market being below about 3.6 months and a buyer’s market being above 6.5 months.

The non-seasonally adjusted National Composite MLS® HPI stood 2.7% below October 2023, the smallest decline since May. It’s likely negative year-over-year comparisons will continue to shrink given the weakness in prices seen towards the end of 2023.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average home price was $696,166 in October 2024, up 6% from October 2023.

Source: CREA