Commercial real estate sector stabilizing

Commercial real estate company Avison Young says the sector is showing signs of stability across Canada at the midway point of the year as enthusiasm tempers, but new tariffs announced by the U.S. this week could be factor to watch.

The firm’s Canadian mid-year outlook said the commercial real estate market is showing signs of momentum, however sentiment has eased somewhat since its last forecast in December. The report was based on an online survey conducted June 3-16 of 220 client-facing Avison Young representatives, such as brokers and sales representatives, and those from project management, valuations, and property management teams.

Nearly half of respondents expect market activity to increase later this year, down from 64% in December. Meanwhile, a similar proportion believe activity will stay the same.

The firm said that shows sentiment has shifted from “broad optimism to a solidly balanced, steady view.” Rather than waiting for certainty amid economic turmoil, the report said occupiers and investors are recognizing the need to act.

“Across Canada, we’re seeing markets become more actionable and decisive. Economic and geopolitical uncertainty remain, but occupiers and investors are more willing to move forward where fundamentals are strong,” said Avison Young principal and president Mark Fieder in a news release.

“The second half of 2026 is shaping up to be less about waiting for certainty and more about executing on opportunity.”

Avison Young cautioned that the survey was completed before Monday’s move by U.S. President Donald Trump to introduce new 50% tariffs on a range of specific Canadian goods which would take effect 30 days later.

While economic and geopolitical uncertainties persist, the report said costs and tariffs have dropped to the second leading cause of project delays at 23%. That’s down from 34% a year ago when the firm released its 2025 mid-year report.

Risk is now the leading concern, accounting for one-quarter of developers pausing their plans.

“This suggests developers are adapting to the financial ramifications of economic and geopolitical conditions and are instead more focused on specific risks,” the firm said in a news release.

The report noted that momentum is not uniform across markets, regions or asset classes.

Sentiment in Toronto, Ottawa, Calgary, and Edmonton has stabilized since the start of the year, while respondents in Vancouver and Montreal show stronger enthusiasm.

Source: Canadian Mortgage Trends