Ontario delinquencies reach alarming highs amid mortgage renewal surge

Ontario’s mortgage delinquency rate soared to record highs in the first quarter of 2025, marking the most severe year-over-year spike in the country and raising red flags about mounting consumer financial stress.

The province’s 90+ day mortgage delinquency rate surged by 71.5% from the same period last year, reaching 0.24%, the highest increase among all Canadian provinces, according to Equifax Canada’s latest report. British Columbia followed with a 33.3% increase, while the rest of the country experienced a far smaller average rise of 3.3%, bringing the national average to 0.19%.

“We often observe seasonal changes in credit usage during the first quarter,” said Rebecca Oakes, vice president of advanced analytics at Equifax Canada. “Generally speaking in the spring, we tend to see mortgage debt rising. However, for Q1 2025 we saw mortgage debt levels fall compared to last quarter.”

New mortgage originations jumped 57.7% year over year, but the increase was largely driven by renewals and refinancing activity, particularly in Ontario, Alberta, and BC. Equifax attributes this to the so-called “great renewal”, as a surge of pandemic-era mortgages come due for renegotiation.

About 28% of borrowers switched lenders, with 46% of those transfers occurring among the Big Five banks.

“The shift in the mortgage market is clear – this is currently about existing homeowners navigating a complex refinancing environment,” Oakes added. “But even as some find relief, affordability challenges haven’t eased for everyone.”

Meanwhile, first-time homebuyer activity rose 40% year over year. Although average monthly mortgage payments declined 7.8% to $2,300, the average loan size increased by 7.5%, reflecting continued affordability stress.

Missed payments climb across credit products

Despite some restraint in credit card spending, more than 1.4 million Canadians, or one in 22 consumers, missed at least one credit payment in Q1. Delinquency rates rose across the board:

• Non-mortgage delinquencies increased 8.9%
• Mortgage delinquencies rose 6.5%
• Ontario’s non-mortgage delinquency rate surged 24%, the highest in Canada
• Alberta and Quebec followed, with 15.9% and 13.9% increases, respectively

Younger Canadians were hit hardest, with the 18–25 age group experiencing a 15.1% jump in delinquency.

Younger consumers under 26 showed the highest 90+ day credit card delinquency rate, hitting 5.38%, up 21.7% year-over-year. Their auto loan delinquencies rose 30% to 1.95%, compared to the national average of 1.08%.

Credit card spending also slowed, falling by $107 per month per cardholder – the lowest since March 2022. Notably, the credit card pay rate dropped to 52.9%, and among consumers under 35, it fell by 392 basis points. This group also posted a 25-basis-point increase in minimum payments.

“Our data shows card payment levels, especially for younger consumers, are starting to fall, indicating this spending slowdown is likely driven more by consumers trying to be prudent rather than switching from credit to debit for financing,” said Oakes.

Source: Canadian Mortgage Professional